Bài phỏng vấn biểu tượng của Warrent Buffett - Warren Buffett’s Most Iconic Interview Ever
Nội dung dịch sang tiếng Việt:
"Cách tiếp cận phi tôn giáo cũng đã rất thành công. Hãy lấy ví dụ Warren Buffett ở Omaha, Nebraska. Nếu bạn đầu tư 10.000 đô vào năm 1965 vào công ty của ông ấy – Berkshire Hathaway – thì ngày nay bạn đã có 1 triệu đô. Warren đã là một chương trong cuốn sách của tôi năm 1972, Supermoney, vì thế tôi biết ông ấy từ lâu.
Ông ấy học nghề từ Ben Graham – người được coi là ‘cha đẻ’ của phân tích chứng khoán tại Đại học Columbia. Tôi không nghĩ Warren từng xuất hiện trên truyền hình cho đến buổi phỏng vấn này. Và chắc chắn là ông ấy chưa bao giờ cố gắng tìm kiếm sự nổi tiếng. Nhưng gần đây ông ấy thu hút nhiều sự chú ý khi trở thành nhân vật chính trong thương vụ Capital Cities thâu tóm ABC. Warren sẽ là cổ đông lớn nhất của công ty mới, và giá trị tài sản ròng của ông giờ đã vượt xa 500 triệu đô. Nhưng khi tôi trò chuyện với ông vào mùa thu năm ngoái tại văn phòng của ông ở Omaha, ông ấy – rất đúng phong cách cá nhân – đã làm cho phong cách đầu tư của mình nghe thật đơn giản.
Nguyên tắc đầu tiên trong đầu tư là: Đừng để mất tiền.
Nguyên tắc thứ hai là: Đừng quên nguyên tắc đầu tiên.
Và đó là tất cả các nguyên tắc.
Ý tôi là: nếu bạn mua thứ gì đó rẻ hơn giá trị thật của nó, và bạn mua một nhóm như vậy, thì cơ bản là bạn sẽ không mất tiền."
Phỏng vấn hỏi: Vậy theo ông, phẩm chất quan trọng nhất của một nhà quản lý đầu tư là gì?
Warren Buffett trả lời:
“Đó là một phẩm chất về tính cách, không phải là trí tuệ. Bạn không cần IQ cực kỳ cao trong ngành này. Bạn chỉ cần đủ thông minh để đi từ đây ra trung tâm thành phố là được. Bạn không cần phải chơi cờ ba chiều hay là cao thủ đánh bài. Bạn cần một nhân cách vững vàng, không bị ảnh hưởng bởi việc đi theo đám đông hay chống lại đám đông. Đây không phải là công việc theo khảo sát đám đông. Đây là công việc của suy nghĩ.
Ben Graham từng nói: Bạn không đúng hay sai vì hàng ngàn người đồng ý hay không đồng ý với bạn. Bạn đúng khi các lập luận và dữ kiện của bạn đúng.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy ông làm gì khác với 90% các nhà đầu tư chuyên nghiệp trên thị trường?
Warren Buffett:
“Hầu hết họ tập trung vào việc giá cổ phiếu sẽ như thế nào trong năm tới. Họ dùng đủ loại phương pháp phức tạp. Nhưng họ không thực sự nghĩ mình đang sở hữu một phần của doanh nghiệp. Nếu bạn đầu tư theo giá trị thật, thì bạn sẽ không quan tâm thị trường có mở cửa ngày mai hay không. Nếu đó là một khoản đầu tư tốt, thì thậm chí thị trường có đóng cửa trong 5 năm cũng không sao."
“Tôi muốn định giá doanh nghiệp trước, rồi sau đó mới xem giá cổ phiếu, để tránh bị ảnh hưởng bởi giá. Giá cả không cho bạn biết gì về doanh nghiệp. Dữ liệu kinh doanh mới có ý nghĩa.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy tại sao ông chọn ở lại Omaha – một nơi không phải trung tâm tài chính?
Buffett:
“Tin hay không tùy bạn, nhưng chúng tôi ở đây vẫn nhận được thư từ, tạp chí và mọi dữ liệu cần thiết để ra quyết định. Ở đây không có 50 người suốt ngày đến thì thầm vào tai tôi rằng tôi nên mua cái này cái kia. Tôi thích sự yên tĩnh. Tôi nhận được dữ liệu, không phải kích thích. Trên Wall Street, bạn bị kích thích quá nhiều và dễ bị xao lạc. Ở đây tôi chỉ tập trung vào giá trị doanh nghiệp.”
Phỏng vấn: Quy trình trí tuệ của ông là gì?
Buffett:
“Là xác định phạm vi năng lực của mình – lĩnh vực mà bạn thực sự hiểu – và định giá các doanh nghiệp trong phạm vi đó. Sau đó tìm xem doanh nghiệp nào đang được bán rẻ nhất so với giá trị thật. Có rất nhiều lĩnh vực tôi không hiểu, và có một số tôi hiểu.”
Phỏng vấn: Ông có từng đầu tư vào công ty công nghệ không?
Buffett:
“Chưa từng. Suốt 30 năm đầu tư, chưa một lần. Tôi không hiểu chúng. Tôi chưa từng sở hữu cổ phiếu IBM, dù đó là một công ty tuyệt vời. Nhưng tôi không hiểu nó.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy ông không tham gia vào cuộc cách mạng công nghệ à?
Buffett:
“Không sao cả. Tôi không cần kiếm tiền ở mọi lĩnh vực. Tôi không biết gì về hạt cacao, và còn nhiều thứ khác tôi không biết. Nhưng tại sao tôi phải cố hiểu chúng? Trong ngành chứng khoán, mỗi ngày bạn được chào hàng hàng ngàn công ty với mức giá thay đổi. Nhưng bạn không phải quyết định ngay. Không ai ép bạn. Giống như chơi bóng chày mà bạn được ngồi đợi đúng quả bóng mà bạn thích mới đánh.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy tại sao không ai cũng đầu tư như ông, khi cách làm nghe thật đơn giản?
Buffett:
“Vì nó quá đơn giản. Các học giả – tức giáo sư đại học và các trường kinh doanh – thường tập trung vào đủ loại biến số. Vì có dữ liệu sẵn, họ bắt đầu phân tích chuyện như: mua cổ phiếu vào thứ Ba và bán vào thứ Sáu có lợi không, hay trong năm bầu cử thì nên làm gì. Họ học cách thao túng dữ liệu. Và như một người bạn tôi nói: Với người có búa, mọi thứ đều là đinh. Và một khi bạn đã có những kỹ năng đó, bạn sẽ khao khát được sử dụng chúng bằng cách nào đó. Nhưng thực ra, chúng không quan trọng.
Nếu tôi được mời tham gia vào một cơ hội kinh doanh, thì liệu có quan trọng không nếu tôi mua vào thứ Ba, hay thứ Bảy, hay vào năm bầu cử? Điều đó không phải là thứ mà một doanh nhân nghĩ đến khi mua một doanh nghiệp.
Vậy nên, nếu tôi không nghĩ về điều đó khi mua doanh nghiệp, thì tại sao tôi lại nghĩ đến nó khi mua cổ phiếu – trong khi cổ phiếu thực chất chỉ là những phần nhỏ của một doanh nghiệp?.”
Nội dung tiếng anh:
Interviewer: A secular approach that has also been very successful — let's take Warren Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska. If you had put $10,000 in 1965 into his company, Berkshire Hathaway, you would have $1 million today. Warren was a chapter in my 1972 book Supermoney, so I've known him a long time.
He learned his trade with Ben Graham, the original dean of security analysis at Columbia University. I don't think Warren has ever been on television until this interview, and he has certainly never courted publicity. But recently, he got a lot of it when he emerged as the key figure in the takeover of ABC by Capital Cities.
Warren will be the largest shareholder of the new company, and his own net worth is now far in excess of $500 million. But when I spoke with him last fall in his office in Omaha, he very characteristically made his investment style seem so perfectly simple.
Warren Buffett: The first rule in investment is: don't lose.
And the second rule in investment is: don't forget the first rule.
And that's all the rules there are.
I mean, if you buy things far below what they're worth and you buy a group of them, you basically don't lose money.
Interviewer: Warren, what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager?
Buffett: It's the temperamental quality, not an intellectual quality. You don’t need tons of IQ in this business. I mean, you have to have enough IQ to get from here to downtown Omaha. But you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues in terms of bridge playing or something of the sort.
You need a stable personality. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against the crowd. Because this is not a business where you take polls — it's a business where you think.
Ben Graham would say: "You're not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you or disagree with you. You're right because your facts and reasoning are right."
Interviewer: What do you do that's different from 90% of the money managers in the market?
Buffett: Most professional investors focus on what the stock is likely to do in the next year. They use all kinds of arcane methods to approach that. But they don’t really think of themselves as owning a piece of a business.
The real test of whether you’re investing from a value standpoint or not is whether you care whether the stock market is open tomorrow. If you're making a good investment in a security, it shouldn't bother you if they close down the stock market for five years.
All the ticker tells me is the price. And I can look at the price occasionally to see whether it’s ridiculously cheap or ridiculously high. But prices don’t tell me anything about a business. Business figures themselves tell me something about a business.
The price of a stock doesn’t tell me anything about a business. I would rather value a stock or a business first — and not even know the price — so that I’m not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation. Then, I look at the price later to see whether it’s way out of line with my value.
Interviewer: So Buffett chose to stay in this world — Omaha, Nebraska — where corn grows just minutes from downtown. Now, Omaha is a nice town, but nobody claims it's a world financial center. Here, the only thundering herd is actually on four feet. Don’t you find Omaha a little bit off the track for the investment world?
Buffett: Well, believe it or not, we get mail here. And we get periodicals. And we get all the facts needed to make decisions. Unlike Wall Street, you’ll notice we don’t have 50 people coming up and whispering in our ears that we should be doing this or that this afternoon.
Interviewer: You appreciate the lack of stimulation right here?
Buffett: I like the lack of stimulation. We get facts — not stimulation — here.
Interviewer: How can you stay away from Wall Street?
Buffett: Well, if I were in Wall Street, I’d probably be a lot poorer. You get overstimulated in Wall Street. You hear lots of things. And you may shorten your focus — and a short focus is not conducive to long profits.
Here, I can just focus on what businesses are worth. I don’t need to be in Washington to figure out what the Washington Post is worth. I don’t need to be in New York to figure out what some other company is worth. It’s simply an intellectual process. And the less static there is in that intellectual process, really, the better off you are.
Interviewer: What is the intellectual process?
Buffett: The intellectual process is defining your area of competence and valuing businesses. Then, within that area of competence, finding whatever sells at the cheapest price in relation to value.
There are all kinds of things I'm not competent to value. There are a few that I am competent to value.
Interviewer: Have you ever bought a technology company?
Buffett: No, I really haven’t. In 30 years of investing, not one. I haven’t understood any of them.
Interviewer: So you’ve never owned, for example, IBM?
Buffett: Never owned IBM. Marvelous company. I mean, a sensational company. But I haven’t owned IBM.
Interviewer: So here is this technological revolution going on, and you’re not going to be a participant?
Buffett: Right past me.
Interviewer: Is that all right with you?
Buffett: It’s okay with me. I don’t have to make money in every game. I mean, I don’t know what cocoa beans are going to do. There are all kinds of things I don’t know about. And that may be too bad. But why should I know all about them or work that hard on them?
In the securities business, literally every day, you have thousands of major American corporations offered to you at a price — and a price that changes daily. And you don’t have to make any decisions. Nothing is forced.
There are no called strikes in this business. The pitcher just stands there and throws balls at you. If you're playing real baseball, and it’s between your knees and your shoulders, you either swing or you get a strike called. If you get too many called, you’re out.
In the securities business, you just sit there and they throw U.S. Steel at 25, they throw General Motors at 68. You don’t have to swing at any of them. They may be wonderful pitches to swing at, but if you don’t know enough, you don’t have to swing.
You can sit there and watch thousands of pitches. Finally, you get one right there where you want it — something that you understand — and then you swing. You might not swing for six months. You might not swing for two years.
It’s not boring — well, it would bore most people. And certainly boredom is a problem with most professional money managers. If they sit out an inning or two, not only do they get somewhat antsy, but their clients start yelling, “Swing, you bum!” — you know, from the stands. And that’s very tough for people to do.
Interviewer: Warren, your approach seems so simple. Why doesn’t everybody do it?
Buffett: Well, I think partly because it is so simple. The academics, for example, focus on all kinds of variables.
Interviewer: By academics, you mean professors, right?
Buffett: Yeah, the professors in business schools. The data is there, so they focus on whether — if you buy stocks on Tuesday and sell them on Friday — you’re better off. Or buy them in election years and sell them in off-years, or buy small companies. There are all these variables because the data are there.
They learn how to manipulate data. And as a friend of mine says, “To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”
And once you have these skills, you’re just dying to utilize them in some way. But they aren’t important. If I were being asked to participate in a business opportunity, would it make any difference to me whether I bought it on a Tuesday or a Saturday or an election year?
That’s not what a businessman thinks about when buying businesses. So why should I think about it when buying stocks — because stocks are just pieces of businesses.
Transcript:
secular approach who have also been very
successful let's take Warren Buffett of
Omaha Nebraska if you would put $10,000
in 1965 into his company Berkshire
Hathaway you would have 1 million today
Warren was a chapter in my 1972 book
super money so I've known him a long
time he learned his trade with Ben
Graham the original Dean of security
analysis at Columbia University
I don't think Warren has ever been on
television until this interview and he
has certainly never courted publicity
but recently he got a lot of it when he
emerged as the key figure in the
takeover of ABC by capital cities Warren
will be the largest shareholder of the
new company and his own net worth is now
far in excess of 500 million dollars but
when I spoke with him last fall in his
office in Omaha he very
characteristically made his investment
style seems so perfectly simple the
first hold on investment is don't lose
and the second hold on investment is
don't forget the first rule and that's
all the rules there are I mean that if
you buy things for far below what
they're worth and you buy a group of
them you basically don't lose money or
on what do you consider the most
important quality for an investment
manager it's the temperamental quality
not an intellectual quality you don't
need tons of IQ in this business I mean
you have to have enough IQ to get from
here to downtown or mall but but you do
not have to be able to play
three-dimensional chess or be in the top
leagues in terms of bridge playing or
something of a sort you need a stable
personality you need a temperament that
neither derives great pleasure from
being with the crowd or against the
crowd because this is not a business
where you take polls it's a business
where you think and Ben Graham would say
that you're not right or wrong because a
thousand people agree with you and
you're not right or wrong because a
thousand people disagree with you you're
right because your facts in your
reasoning or right one what do you do
that's different than 90% of the money
managers who are in the market certainly
most of the professional investors focus
on what the stock is likely to do in the
next year to avail all kinds of
all kinds of arcane methods of
approaching that but they do not really
think of themselves as owning a piece of
a business that the real test of whether
you're investing from a value standpoint
or not is whether you care whether the
stock market is open tomorrow if you're
making a good investment in a security
it shouldn't bother you if they close
down the stock market for five years
all the ticker tells me is the price and
I can look at the price occasionally to
see whether the price is up outlandish
ly cheaper outlandish lehigh but what
prices don't tell me anything about a
business business business figures
themselves tell me something about a
business but the price of a stock
doesn't tell me anything about a
business I would rather value a stock or
a business first and not even know the
price so that I'm not influenced by the
price in establishing my valuation and
then look at the price later to see
whether it's way out of line with what
my value is so Buffett chose to stay in
this world Omaha Nebraska where corn
grows just minutes from downtown
now Omaha is a nice town but nobody
claims it's a world financial center
here the only thundering herd is
actually on four feet don't you find
home AHA a little bit
to beat the track for the investment
world well believe it or not we get mail
here and we get periodicals and we get
all the facts needed to make decisions
and unlike Wall Street you'll notice we
don't have 50 people coming up and
whispering in our ears that we should be
doing this or that this afternoon you
appreciate the lack of stimulation right
here
I like the lack of stimulation we get
facts not stimulation here how can you
stay away from Wall Street well if I
were in Wall Street I'd probably be a
lot poor at you get over stimulated in
Wall Street and you hear lots of things
and and you may you may shorten your
focus and a short focus is not conducive
to to long profits and here I can just
focus on what businesses are worth and I
don't need to be in Washington to figure
out what the Washington Post newspaper
is worth and I don't need to be in New
York to figure out what some other
company is worth it's it's it's simply
it's an intellectual process and unless
the most static there is in that an
intellectual process really the better
off you are what is the intellectual
process the intellectual processes is
defining your level is defining your
area of competence and valuing
businesses and then within that area of
competence finding whatever sells at the
cheapest price in relation to value and
there are all kinds of things I'm not
competent to value there are a few that
I am competent to value have you ever
bought a technology company no I really
haven't
in 30 years of investing not one I
haven't understood any of my so you
haven't ever boned for example IBM we're
never owned IBM Marvis company I made a
sensational company but I haven't known
IBM and so here is this technological
revolution going on and you're not gonna
be a participant right past me is that
all right with you it's okay with me I
don't have to make money in every game I
mean I don't know what cocoa beans are
gonna do I don't you know I there are
all kinds of things I don't know about
and that may be too bad but you know why
should I know all about him work that
hard on him in securities business you
literally every day have thousands of
the major American corporations offered
you at a price and a price that changes
daily and you don't have to make any
decisions you have to make that nothing
is forced
so you there are no called strikes in
the business the pitcher just stands
there and throws balls at you and if
you're playing real baseball and it's
between the knees and the shoulders you
either swing or you got a strike called
on you have to get too many goals I knew
you're out in the securities business
you sit there and they throw us steal a
25 and they throw General Motors at 68
you don't have to swing at any of them
they may be wonderful pitches to swing
at but if you don't know enough you
don't have to swing and you can sit
there and watch thousands of pitches and
finally you get one right there where
you want it something that you
understand and then you swing and so you
might not swing for six months you might
not swing for two years its net boring
it would it would bore most people and
certainly boredom is is a problem with
most professional money managers if they
if they if they stray sit to sit out an
inning or two not only do they get
somewhat antsy but their clients are
starting yelling to start yelling swing
you bum you know from the from the
stands and that's very tough for people
to do one your your approach seems so
simple why doesn't everybody do it well
I think partly because it is so simple
that the academics for example focus on
on all kinds of variables partly make an
academic you mean of professors right
yeah the data and business school sure
that and the data is there so they focus
on whether if you buy stocks on Tuesday
and sell them on Friday you're better
off or people I'm in election years and
sell them in other years you're better
off if you buy small companies there are
all these variables because the data are
there and and they learn how to
manipulate data and as a friend of mine
says to a man with a hammer everything
looks like a nail
and once you have these skills you just
are dying to to utilize them in some way
but they aren't important if I were
being asked to participate in a business
opportunity would it make any difference
to me whether I bought it on a Tuesday
or Saturday or an election year or
something it's not what a businessman
thinks about in buying businesses so if
I think about it when buying stocks
because stocks are just pieces of
businesses
"Cách tiếp cận phi tôn giáo cũng đã rất thành công. Hãy lấy ví dụ Warren Buffett ở Omaha, Nebraska. Nếu bạn đầu tư 10.000 đô vào năm 1965 vào công ty của ông ấy – Berkshire Hathaway – thì ngày nay bạn đã có 1 triệu đô. Warren đã là một chương trong cuốn sách của tôi năm 1972, Supermoney, vì thế tôi biết ông ấy từ lâu.
Ông ấy học nghề từ Ben Graham – người được coi là ‘cha đẻ’ của phân tích chứng khoán tại Đại học Columbia. Tôi không nghĩ Warren từng xuất hiện trên truyền hình cho đến buổi phỏng vấn này. Và chắc chắn là ông ấy chưa bao giờ cố gắng tìm kiếm sự nổi tiếng. Nhưng gần đây ông ấy thu hút nhiều sự chú ý khi trở thành nhân vật chính trong thương vụ Capital Cities thâu tóm ABC. Warren sẽ là cổ đông lớn nhất của công ty mới, và giá trị tài sản ròng của ông giờ đã vượt xa 500 triệu đô. Nhưng khi tôi trò chuyện với ông vào mùa thu năm ngoái tại văn phòng của ông ở Omaha, ông ấy – rất đúng phong cách cá nhân – đã làm cho phong cách đầu tư của mình nghe thật đơn giản.
Nguyên tắc đầu tiên trong đầu tư là: Đừng để mất tiền.
Nguyên tắc thứ hai là: Đừng quên nguyên tắc đầu tiên.
Và đó là tất cả các nguyên tắc.
Ý tôi là: nếu bạn mua thứ gì đó rẻ hơn giá trị thật của nó, và bạn mua một nhóm như vậy, thì cơ bản là bạn sẽ không mất tiền."
Phỏng vấn hỏi: Vậy theo ông, phẩm chất quan trọng nhất của một nhà quản lý đầu tư là gì?
Warren Buffett trả lời:
“Đó là một phẩm chất về tính cách, không phải là trí tuệ. Bạn không cần IQ cực kỳ cao trong ngành này. Bạn chỉ cần đủ thông minh để đi từ đây ra trung tâm thành phố là được. Bạn không cần phải chơi cờ ba chiều hay là cao thủ đánh bài. Bạn cần một nhân cách vững vàng, không bị ảnh hưởng bởi việc đi theo đám đông hay chống lại đám đông. Đây không phải là công việc theo khảo sát đám đông. Đây là công việc của suy nghĩ.
Ben Graham từng nói: Bạn không đúng hay sai vì hàng ngàn người đồng ý hay không đồng ý với bạn. Bạn đúng khi các lập luận và dữ kiện của bạn đúng.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy ông làm gì khác với 90% các nhà đầu tư chuyên nghiệp trên thị trường?
Warren Buffett:
“Hầu hết họ tập trung vào việc giá cổ phiếu sẽ như thế nào trong năm tới. Họ dùng đủ loại phương pháp phức tạp. Nhưng họ không thực sự nghĩ mình đang sở hữu một phần của doanh nghiệp. Nếu bạn đầu tư theo giá trị thật, thì bạn sẽ không quan tâm thị trường có mở cửa ngày mai hay không. Nếu đó là một khoản đầu tư tốt, thì thậm chí thị trường có đóng cửa trong 5 năm cũng không sao."
“Tôi muốn định giá doanh nghiệp trước, rồi sau đó mới xem giá cổ phiếu, để tránh bị ảnh hưởng bởi giá. Giá cả không cho bạn biết gì về doanh nghiệp. Dữ liệu kinh doanh mới có ý nghĩa.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy tại sao ông chọn ở lại Omaha – một nơi không phải trung tâm tài chính?
Buffett:
“Tin hay không tùy bạn, nhưng chúng tôi ở đây vẫn nhận được thư từ, tạp chí và mọi dữ liệu cần thiết để ra quyết định. Ở đây không có 50 người suốt ngày đến thì thầm vào tai tôi rằng tôi nên mua cái này cái kia. Tôi thích sự yên tĩnh. Tôi nhận được dữ liệu, không phải kích thích. Trên Wall Street, bạn bị kích thích quá nhiều và dễ bị xao lạc. Ở đây tôi chỉ tập trung vào giá trị doanh nghiệp.”
Phỏng vấn: Quy trình trí tuệ của ông là gì?
Buffett:
“Là xác định phạm vi năng lực của mình – lĩnh vực mà bạn thực sự hiểu – và định giá các doanh nghiệp trong phạm vi đó. Sau đó tìm xem doanh nghiệp nào đang được bán rẻ nhất so với giá trị thật. Có rất nhiều lĩnh vực tôi không hiểu, và có một số tôi hiểu.”
Phỏng vấn: Ông có từng đầu tư vào công ty công nghệ không?
Buffett:
“Chưa từng. Suốt 30 năm đầu tư, chưa một lần. Tôi không hiểu chúng. Tôi chưa từng sở hữu cổ phiếu IBM, dù đó là một công ty tuyệt vời. Nhưng tôi không hiểu nó.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy ông không tham gia vào cuộc cách mạng công nghệ à?
Buffett:
“Không sao cả. Tôi không cần kiếm tiền ở mọi lĩnh vực. Tôi không biết gì về hạt cacao, và còn nhiều thứ khác tôi không biết. Nhưng tại sao tôi phải cố hiểu chúng? Trong ngành chứng khoán, mỗi ngày bạn được chào hàng hàng ngàn công ty với mức giá thay đổi. Nhưng bạn không phải quyết định ngay. Không ai ép bạn. Giống như chơi bóng chày mà bạn được ngồi đợi đúng quả bóng mà bạn thích mới đánh.”
Phỏng vấn: Vậy tại sao không ai cũng đầu tư như ông, khi cách làm nghe thật đơn giản?
Buffett:
“Vì nó quá đơn giản. Các học giả – tức giáo sư đại học và các trường kinh doanh – thường tập trung vào đủ loại biến số. Vì có dữ liệu sẵn, họ bắt đầu phân tích chuyện như: mua cổ phiếu vào thứ Ba và bán vào thứ Sáu có lợi không, hay trong năm bầu cử thì nên làm gì. Họ học cách thao túng dữ liệu. Và như một người bạn tôi nói: Với người có búa, mọi thứ đều là đinh. Và một khi bạn đã có những kỹ năng đó, bạn sẽ khao khát được sử dụng chúng bằng cách nào đó. Nhưng thực ra, chúng không quan trọng.
Nếu tôi được mời tham gia vào một cơ hội kinh doanh, thì liệu có quan trọng không nếu tôi mua vào thứ Ba, hay thứ Bảy, hay vào năm bầu cử? Điều đó không phải là thứ mà một doanh nhân nghĩ đến khi mua một doanh nghiệp.
Vậy nên, nếu tôi không nghĩ về điều đó khi mua doanh nghiệp, thì tại sao tôi lại nghĩ đến nó khi mua cổ phiếu – trong khi cổ phiếu thực chất chỉ là những phần nhỏ của một doanh nghiệp?.”
Nội dung tiếng anh:
Interviewer: A secular approach that has also been very successful — let's take Warren Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska. If you had put $10,000 in 1965 into his company, Berkshire Hathaway, you would have $1 million today. Warren was a chapter in my 1972 book Supermoney, so I've known him a long time.
He learned his trade with Ben Graham, the original dean of security analysis at Columbia University. I don't think Warren has ever been on television until this interview, and he has certainly never courted publicity. But recently, he got a lot of it when he emerged as the key figure in the takeover of ABC by Capital Cities.
Warren will be the largest shareholder of the new company, and his own net worth is now far in excess of $500 million. But when I spoke with him last fall in his office in Omaha, he very characteristically made his investment style seem so perfectly simple.
Warren Buffett: The first rule in investment is: don't lose.
And the second rule in investment is: don't forget the first rule.
And that's all the rules there are.
I mean, if you buy things far below what they're worth and you buy a group of them, you basically don't lose money.
Interviewer: Warren, what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager?
Buffett: It's the temperamental quality, not an intellectual quality. You don’t need tons of IQ in this business. I mean, you have to have enough IQ to get from here to downtown Omaha. But you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues in terms of bridge playing or something of the sort.
You need a stable personality. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against the crowd. Because this is not a business where you take polls — it's a business where you think.
Ben Graham would say: "You're not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you or disagree with you. You're right because your facts and reasoning are right."
Interviewer: What do you do that's different from 90% of the money managers in the market?
Buffett: Most professional investors focus on what the stock is likely to do in the next year. They use all kinds of arcane methods to approach that. But they don’t really think of themselves as owning a piece of a business.
The real test of whether you’re investing from a value standpoint or not is whether you care whether the stock market is open tomorrow. If you're making a good investment in a security, it shouldn't bother you if they close down the stock market for five years.
All the ticker tells me is the price. And I can look at the price occasionally to see whether it’s ridiculously cheap or ridiculously high. But prices don’t tell me anything about a business. Business figures themselves tell me something about a business.
The price of a stock doesn’t tell me anything about a business. I would rather value a stock or a business first — and not even know the price — so that I’m not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation. Then, I look at the price later to see whether it’s way out of line with my value.
Interviewer: So Buffett chose to stay in this world — Omaha, Nebraska — where corn grows just minutes from downtown. Now, Omaha is a nice town, but nobody claims it's a world financial center. Here, the only thundering herd is actually on four feet. Don’t you find Omaha a little bit off the track for the investment world?
Buffett: Well, believe it or not, we get mail here. And we get periodicals. And we get all the facts needed to make decisions. Unlike Wall Street, you’ll notice we don’t have 50 people coming up and whispering in our ears that we should be doing this or that this afternoon.
Interviewer: You appreciate the lack of stimulation right here?
Buffett: I like the lack of stimulation. We get facts — not stimulation — here.
Interviewer: How can you stay away from Wall Street?
Buffett: Well, if I were in Wall Street, I’d probably be a lot poorer. You get overstimulated in Wall Street. You hear lots of things. And you may shorten your focus — and a short focus is not conducive to long profits.
Here, I can just focus on what businesses are worth. I don’t need to be in Washington to figure out what the Washington Post is worth. I don’t need to be in New York to figure out what some other company is worth. It’s simply an intellectual process. And the less static there is in that intellectual process, really, the better off you are.
Interviewer: What is the intellectual process?
Buffett: The intellectual process is defining your area of competence and valuing businesses. Then, within that area of competence, finding whatever sells at the cheapest price in relation to value.
There are all kinds of things I'm not competent to value. There are a few that I am competent to value.
Interviewer: Have you ever bought a technology company?
Buffett: No, I really haven’t. In 30 years of investing, not one. I haven’t understood any of them.
Interviewer: So you’ve never owned, for example, IBM?
Buffett: Never owned IBM. Marvelous company. I mean, a sensational company. But I haven’t owned IBM.
Interviewer: So here is this technological revolution going on, and you’re not going to be a participant?
Buffett: Right past me.
Interviewer: Is that all right with you?
Buffett: It’s okay with me. I don’t have to make money in every game. I mean, I don’t know what cocoa beans are going to do. There are all kinds of things I don’t know about. And that may be too bad. But why should I know all about them or work that hard on them?
In the securities business, literally every day, you have thousands of major American corporations offered to you at a price — and a price that changes daily. And you don’t have to make any decisions. Nothing is forced.
There are no called strikes in this business. The pitcher just stands there and throws balls at you. If you're playing real baseball, and it’s between your knees and your shoulders, you either swing or you get a strike called. If you get too many called, you’re out.
In the securities business, you just sit there and they throw U.S. Steel at 25, they throw General Motors at 68. You don’t have to swing at any of them. They may be wonderful pitches to swing at, but if you don’t know enough, you don’t have to swing.
You can sit there and watch thousands of pitches. Finally, you get one right there where you want it — something that you understand — and then you swing. You might not swing for six months. You might not swing for two years.
It’s not boring — well, it would bore most people. And certainly boredom is a problem with most professional money managers. If they sit out an inning or two, not only do they get somewhat antsy, but their clients start yelling, “Swing, you bum!” — you know, from the stands. And that’s very tough for people to do.
Interviewer: Warren, your approach seems so simple. Why doesn’t everybody do it?
Buffett: Well, I think partly because it is so simple. The academics, for example, focus on all kinds of variables.
Interviewer: By academics, you mean professors, right?
Buffett: Yeah, the professors in business schools. The data is there, so they focus on whether — if you buy stocks on Tuesday and sell them on Friday — you’re better off. Or buy them in election years and sell them in off-years, or buy small companies. There are all these variables because the data are there.
They learn how to manipulate data. And as a friend of mine says, “To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”
And once you have these skills, you’re just dying to utilize them in some way. But they aren’t important. If I were being asked to participate in a business opportunity, would it make any difference to me whether I bought it on a Tuesday or a Saturday or an election year?
That’s not what a businessman thinks about when buying businesses. So why should I think about it when buying stocks — because stocks are just pieces of businesses.
Transcript:
secular approach who have also been very
successful let's take Warren Buffett of
Omaha Nebraska if you would put $10,000
in 1965 into his company Berkshire
Hathaway you would have 1 million today
Warren was a chapter in my 1972 book
super money so I've known him a long
time he learned his trade with Ben
Graham the original Dean of security
analysis at Columbia University
I don't think Warren has ever been on
television until this interview and he
has certainly never courted publicity
but recently he got a lot of it when he
emerged as the key figure in the
takeover of ABC by capital cities Warren
will be the largest shareholder of the
new company and his own net worth is now
far in excess of 500 million dollars but
when I spoke with him last fall in his
office in Omaha he very
characteristically made his investment
style seems so perfectly simple the
first hold on investment is don't lose
and the second hold on investment is
don't forget the first rule and that's
all the rules there are I mean that if
you buy things for far below what
they're worth and you buy a group of
them you basically don't lose money or
on what do you consider the most
important quality for an investment
manager it's the temperamental quality
not an intellectual quality you don't
need tons of IQ in this business I mean
you have to have enough IQ to get from
here to downtown or mall but but you do
not have to be able to play
three-dimensional chess or be in the top
leagues in terms of bridge playing or
something of a sort you need a stable
personality you need a temperament that
neither derives great pleasure from
being with the crowd or against the
crowd because this is not a business
where you take polls it's a business
where you think and Ben Graham would say
that you're not right or wrong because a
thousand people agree with you and
you're not right or wrong because a
thousand people disagree with you you're
right because your facts in your
reasoning or right one what do you do
that's different than 90% of the money
managers who are in the market certainly
most of the professional investors focus
on what the stock is likely to do in the
next year to avail all kinds of
all kinds of arcane methods of
approaching that but they do not really
think of themselves as owning a piece of
a business that the real test of whether
you're investing from a value standpoint
or not is whether you care whether the
stock market is open tomorrow if you're
making a good investment in a security
it shouldn't bother you if they close
down the stock market for five years
all the ticker tells me is the price and
I can look at the price occasionally to
see whether the price is up outlandish
ly cheaper outlandish lehigh but what
prices don't tell me anything about a
business business business figures
themselves tell me something about a
business but the price of a stock
doesn't tell me anything about a
business I would rather value a stock or
a business first and not even know the
price so that I'm not influenced by the
price in establishing my valuation and
then look at the price later to see
whether it's way out of line with what
my value is so Buffett chose to stay in
this world Omaha Nebraska where corn
grows just minutes from downtown
now Omaha is a nice town but nobody
claims it's a world financial center
here the only thundering herd is
actually on four feet don't you find
home AHA a little bit
to beat the track for the investment
world well believe it or not we get mail
here and we get periodicals and we get
all the facts needed to make decisions
and unlike Wall Street you'll notice we
don't have 50 people coming up and
whispering in our ears that we should be
doing this or that this afternoon you
appreciate the lack of stimulation right
here
I like the lack of stimulation we get
facts not stimulation here how can you
stay away from Wall Street well if I
were in Wall Street I'd probably be a
lot poor at you get over stimulated in
Wall Street and you hear lots of things
and and you may you may shorten your
focus and a short focus is not conducive
to to long profits and here I can just
focus on what businesses are worth and I
don't need to be in Washington to figure
out what the Washington Post newspaper
is worth and I don't need to be in New
York to figure out what some other
company is worth it's it's it's simply
it's an intellectual process and unless
the most static there is in that an
intellectual process really the better
off you are what is the intellectual
process the intellectual processes is
defining your level is defining your
area of competence and valuing
businesses and then within that area of
competence finding whatever sells at the
cheapest price in relation to value and
there are all kinds of things I'm not
competent to value there are a few that
I am competent to value have you ever
bought a technology company no I really
haven't
in 30 years of investing not one I
haven't understood any of my so you
haven't ever boned for example IBM we're
never owned IBM Marvis company I made a
sensational company but I haven't known
IBM and so here is this technological
revolution going on and you're not gonna
be a participant right past me is that
all right with you it's okay with me I
don't have to make money in every game I
mean I don't know what cocoa beans are
gonna do I don't you know I there are
all kinds of things I don't know about
and that may be too bad but you know why
should I know all about him work that
hard on him in securities business you
literally every day have thousands of
the major American corporations offered
you at a price and a price that changes
daily and you don't have to make any
decisions you have to make that nothing
is forced
so you there are no called strikes in
the business the pitcher just stands
there and throws balls at you and if
you're playing real baseball and it's
between the knees and the shoulders you
either swing or you got a strike called
on you have to get too many goals I knew
you're out in the securities business
you sit there and they throw us steal a
25 and they throw General Motors at 68
you don't have to swing at any of them
they may be wonderful pitches to swing
at but if you don't know enough you
don't have to swing and you can sit
there and watch thousands of pitches and
finally you get one right there where
you want it something that you
understand and then you swing and so you
might not swing for six months you might
not swing for two years its net boring
it would it would bore most people and
certainly boredom is is a problem with
most professional money managers if they
if they if they stray sit to sit out an
inning or two not only do they get
somewhat antsy but their clients are
starting yelling to start yelling swing
you bum you know from the from the
stands and that's very tough for people
to do one your your approach seems so
simple why doesn't everybody do it well
I think partly because it is so simple
that the academics for example focus on
on all kinds of variables partly make an
academic you mean of professors right
yeah the data and business school sure
that and the data is there so they focus
on whether if you buy stocks on Tuesday
and sell them on Friday you're better
off or people I'm in election years and
sell them in other years you're better
off if you buy small companies there are
all these variables because the data are
there and and they learn how to
manipulate data and as a friend of mine
says to a man with a hammer everything
looks like a nail
and once you have these skills you just
are dying to to utilize them in some way
but they aren't important if I were
being asked to participate in a business
opportunity would it make any difference
to me whether I bought it on a Tuesday
or Saturday or an election year or
something it's not what a businessman
thinks about in buying businesses so if
I think about it when buying stocks
because stocks are just pieces of
businesses